El Niņo & Psychological
Perceptions
Wendi Hauck, Ehren Hines, Denise Sobieski & John Ward
Please Note: These materials may be used for research, study, and
education, but please credit the authors and source.
When we have had a blizzard or when we had a
drought we used to blame it on Global Warming; this year you are going to hear people
blame El Niņo for everything --John Christy , University of Alabama
Perceptions and cognitions are ordinary aspects of human life. Not only do humans make perceptions about other humans, but we also make them of other animals, plants and objects. In terms of environmental perceptions, public perceptions of global warming has long been an area of interest, but there are many other environmental issues that people make perceptions about. Throughout the course of this analysis we have been concerned with the threat El Niņo poses for the island of Maui and how the residents are dealing with that threat. At this point we look specifically at the ways in which the residents of Maui may be coping with the problems associated with El Niņo. Although El Niņo is an environmental force external to the human mind, the perceptions that individuals have of the phenomena will affect the manner in which these individuals cope with and manage the problem. Research has demonstrated how patterns of under and overreactions, apply to people's perceptions of and actions towards environmental risks. There are four theories about human perception and cognition that may help explain how the residents of Maui will cope with El Niņo; these theories are: (1) The Concept of Risk Underestimation/ Inaction as Necessary for Getting on with One's Life, (2) "Illusions", Perceived Control and Mental Health, (3) Psychological Stress Theory, and (4) Availability Heuristic. By briefly defining and explaining each of these theories and applying the mental processes to scenarios involving El Niņo, we hope to further understand how to manage this environmental issue.
(1) Concept of Risk Underestimation/ Inaction as Necessary for "Getting on with Ones' Life": Slovic, Fischoff, and Lichtenstien (1978)
The original focus of Slovic et al.'s
(1978) research was people's failure to use seatbelts, but their theory has wide
applicability. If there were no limits to the time, energy, and attention people devote to
natural hazards and threats, one's entire life would be spent in "obsessive
preoccupation with risk" that would prevent a normal and productive existence.
As Slovic et al. found it is necessary to ignore many of the threats and hazards one
faces, and the most logical threats to ignore would be those with relatively low
probabilities.
Therefore, this theory states that in order to cope with the risk we face
in our daily lives we must ignore those risks with low probabilities. In most instances
this strategy functions productively; however, in some instances this mechanism is
detrimental. If risks that we choose to ignore are not as low as they are perceived to be,
then this mental mechanism has failed.
Since the probability of El Niņo causing a drought/water shortage in Maui is an uncertainty to many of the residents of Maui, it is most likely that most people will not prepare for the risk. However, there are many predictions as to the effects of El Niņo on Hawaii that are available to the residents of Maui. As a result the residents of Maui may underestimate the risk involved with El Niņo which could have disastrous consequences. A lack in preparation will only add to the water shortages that are occurring, and this will cause the already dangerous problem to become much worse.
How do the residents work to overcome this psychological mechanism? Slovic et al. proposed that people must be made to boost their perceived probability of risk to overcome this psychological mechanism. In the case of El Niņo this would work by government agencies, environmentalist and meteorologist predicting the outcome of El Niņo as far worse than it actually will be. This overestimation of the risk by these groups will lead to a more accurate risk perception by the population at large.
"Look! Up in the sky, down in the sea it's...evidence of El Niņo, or is it? All sorts natural anomalies are being blamed on El Niņo, including Hurricane Nora" --Newsweek 10-6-97
- (2) "Illusions", Perceived Control, and Mental Health: Taylor and Brown (1988)
The focus of Taylor and Brown's (1988) research dealt mainly with mental health, but it also has applicability to understanding why people may incorrectly estimate environmental risk. People overestimate their own skills and positive traits -- overestimate the degree to which they control the outside world. Although these illusions are necessary for mental health, they may cause people to underestimate the severity/probability of a hazard and fail to take preventive actions. This concept is accompanied by three illusions: (1) People tend to see themselves as better than others on a variety of traits, (2) People believe they can influence events that are entirely determined by chance, and (3) Exaggerated perceptions of personal control plays the biggest role in causing hazard underestimation and unrealistic optimism.
What if some of the residents of Maui believe that they can control the forces behind El Niņo? The answer is simple: residents thinking that they have some sort of control over El Niņo are wrong, and their misperception could have serious consequences on their lives and the lives of others. El Niņo, a global atmospheric/meteorological phenomena, cannot be tamed by human intellect or technology. Any cognitions of perceived control must be replaced by preparedness. To combat the risk of El Niņo residents of Maui must conserve water, and work on a long term plan for water conservation.
"Looking for El Niņo --the freakish destructive disruption in worldwide weather has become the meteorological equivalent of looking for Elvis." -- Newsweek 10-6-97
(3) Psychological Stress Theory: Denial as a Response to Threats Perceived as Uncontrollable
This theory holds that denial and/or a failure to act can occur when a person perceives a threat in his or her environment as uncontrollable, even though the person may have some control over it. The denial or inaction serves to lessen the person's fear/anxiety and protect the person from experiencing the uncomfortable feelings noncontrol itself produces. The mental action of primary appraisal assesses the nature and magnitude of the environmental element. Secondary appraisal evaluates the degree to which the person's coping skills and resources are sufficient to meet the threat or challenge.
El Niņo is an uncontrollable event, but the problems that it causes may be prepared for and managed. Upon completion of primary appraisal, an individual would be correct in assessing El Niņo as environmental phenomena with great risk. However, when the individual completes secondary appraisal he or she should not deem themselves as insufficiently equipped to handle the threat. To do so would result in no preparation or long-term planning, the only ways to solve the problem.
When secondary appraisal deems the problem as manageable, there are two mechanisms that can be used to manage the situation--problem focused coping and emotional focused coping. For the problem at hand, dealing with El Niņo, emotional focused coping will not be of much use because it entails using a mental mechanism to deal with the problem. For example: trying to think "happy thoughts" while El Niņo is causing a drought will do very little to remedy the situation. Problem focused coping would be the best option in this case because it centers on concrete ways to deal with the problem. The person thinks up and executes new behaviors that diminish the stressor. So a resident of Maui may start to conserve water, and work to implement a long-term environmental plan to conserve water in his or her household and community. This action would be the best way to manage environmental problems associated with El Niņo.
"The cry has gone out: El Niņo is coming, El Niņo is
coming."
(4) Availability Heuristic
Heuristics are mental models that help people to handle (comprehend and act upon) information in quick manner. The availability heuristic states that individuals tend to judge the probability of a future event on the ease with which they can recall a similar event in the past. Thus, when judging the threat of El Niņo, people will most likely consider how much of a threat it was in the past. Unfortunately, this mental model is in error because a person's memory is not as reliable as the facts of the past. Also, a person's memory and the ease with which they recall them may be affected by emotions, cognitions, or physiological problems not directly associated with the past event. This also presents problems for those individuals who have never witnessed El Niņo. They will most likely not perceive any threat at all because there is no mental reference that they can compare to the situation. These individual will underestimate the risk which could lead to disastrous short-term and long-term problems for the island of Maui.
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Psy 412 Miami University. Last revised: . This document has been accessed times since July 15, 1997. Comments & Questions to R. Sherman . Also See: Social Psychology at Miami University